A model for solving the affordability crisis of the middle class in the US

  A model for solving the affordability crisis of the middle class

Model created: Market-Led Affordability Model (MLAM)

Principles

• Pro-freedom, pro-market competition, limited government, no coercive redistribution.
• Focus on unleashing supply, lowering barriers to entry, and letting prices fall through competition and innovation.

Core levers and actions

1. Housing abundance (lower rent and mortgages)

• State/local: Legalize by-right duplexes/4-plexes and ADUs; end minimum parking; fast, predictable permitting (shot clocks); stop exclusionary zoning; adopt code flexibility that preserves safety but reduces cost.
• Federal: Tie transportation/block grants to demonstrable housing-permit growth and faster approvals; 1-year NEPA timelines for standard projects; allow by-right redevelopment of underused federal/transport parcels; expand apprenticeship pipelines for skilled trades; interstate license reciprocity for construction trades.

2. Healthcare competition (lower premiums and out-of-pocket)

• Enforce real-time hospital/insurer price transparency with meaningful penalties; site-neutral payments to end facility-fee gaming; repeal certificate-of-need.
• Expand HSAs to all plans and raise limits; allow cross-state insurance; protect Direct Primary Care and short-term renewable plans; telehealth across state lines; speed generics/biosimilars; PBM transparency and pass-through.

3. Energy abundance (lower power, heat, and fuel costs)

• Streamlined permitting for pipelines, transmission, LNG terminals; predictable leases on federal lands/waters; accelerate nuclear via risk-appropriate licensing for SMRs/advanced reactors; modernize mining/permitting for critical minerals; allow competition among generation sources without mandates.
• Encourage dynamic pricing and demand response to reduce bills without mandates.

4. Work, skills, and entry barriers (raise take-home pay and lower service costs)

• Universal occupational-licensing reciprocity and sunset reviews; convert many licenses to certification; legalize home-based businesses and micro-care with sensible safety rules.
• Expand apprenticeships, short-term Pell for high-ROI programs, and rapid skill bootcamps; ease employer training expensing.
• Right-to-repair and parts/data access to cut auto and appliance costs.

5. Tax relief focused on work and savings (without bigger deficits)

• Lower marginal rates on middle incomes and/or a 1–2 point employee payroll tax cut, paired with equal, immediate cuts to corporate welfare, duplicative programs, and improper payments.
• Full and permanent expensing to raise productivity (higher real wages); index brackets fully to inflation; remove tariffs that function as consumption taxes on families.

6. Everyday goods and shipping (cheaper groceries and goods)

• Repeal the Jones Act’s coastwise shipping restrictions; end sugar and certain ag-market controls that raise food prices.
• Simplify customs; eliminate tariffs on widely used consumer inputs.

7. Spending and monetary discipline (protect savings from inflation)

• Cap federal primary spending growth below inflation+population; restore regular-order budgeting; regulatory budget with sunset reviews.
• Independent, rules-based monetary policy; avoid demand-jolting gimmicks.

How we measure success

• Family Cost-of-Living Index for the median household: housing (rent/mortgage), healthcare premiums+OOP, energy (electricity, gas, fuel), groceries, transportation, childcare where applicable.
• After-tax, after-necessities income.
• Supply indicators: housing permits per 1,000 residents, hospital price compliance rates, megawatts and pipeline miles permitted, occupational licensing rollback counts.
• Fiscal guardrails: deficit/GDP and interest cost share trending down.

Now running the model (illustrative scenario)
Assume a typical middle-class family of four, $90,000 household income, living in a high-demand metro.

Within 3–5 years, with strong implementation:

• Housing: 10–20% lower rents/prices versus baseline due to by-right building and faster permitting.
  Approximate annual impact: $2,400–$4,800 off rent/mortgage (assuming $2,000/month baseline).
• Healthcare: 8–15% reduction in employee premiums and common shoppable services from transparency, site-neutral payments, CON repeal, and HSAs.
  Impact: $1,000–$2,000 per year.
• Energy: 10–15% lower electricity/natural gas bills on average; modest fuel price and volatility relief from expanded supply and infrastructure.
  Impact: $500–$1,000 per year.
• Goods and groceries: 2–5% from shipping reform and ag-market liberalization.
  Impact: $200–$500 per year.
• Auto and appliances (right-to-repair, parts access): $100–$300 per year.
• Taxes: 1–2 point payroll tax cut or equivalent middle-rate cut, offset by spending cuts and subsidy eliminations.
  Impact: $900–$1,800 per year in higher take-home pay.

Illustrative total annual family gain: $5,100–$10,400, plus more predictable bills and shorter commutes from housing closer to jobs.

Macro “run” (directional, not a forecast)

• Housing permits per 1,000 residents: +50–100% in reforming metros.
• Real wage growth: +0.3 to +0.6 percentage points per year from productivity and lower non-wage costs.
• Headline inflation: lower by roughly 0.5–1.0 percentage points versus baseline during the build-out period due mainly to housing/energy.
• Deficit path: neutral to improving if tax relief is paired dollar-for-dollar with spending restraint and subsidy eliminations.

Implementation playbook

• Day 1–100 (federal): Price-transparency enforcement with penalties; NEPA and permitting timelines; nuclear licensing track; PBM transparency; CON repeal incentives; right-to-repair standards in federal procurement; tariff cuts on key consumer inputs; regulatory budget EO.
• States/locals: YIMBY package (by-right small multifamily, ADUs, parking reform, permit shot clocks), licensing reciprocity, telehealth and DPC protection, childcare rule modernization, charter/school-choice expansion.
• Pay-fors: sunset corporate welfare and narrow tax carve-outs; reduce improper payments; repeal sugar program; narrow farm and shipping protectionism; agency rescissions; procurement reforms.

Why this works

• It expands supply where shortages drive prices, restores competition where rules protect incumbents, and lets families keep more of what they earn—all without expanding centralized control or coercive redistribution.

Here are some more details:

Here’s a concise, market-first playbook to materially lower middle-class cost of living without expanding the state, price controls, or heavy-handed mandates.

Model (how we’ll win)

• Mechanism: more supply + more competition + higher productivity + lower trade/friction costs.
• Constraints: limited government, voluntary choice, rule of law, no price controls, no new permanent entitlements.
• KPI targets (2–3 years): CPI-shelter -8% to -12% in reforming metros; health premiums/out-of-pocket -15% to -25% for adopters; household energy -10% to -20%; tradable goods -2% to -4%; childcare -10% to -20%.
• Household impact: $6,000–$12,000 lower annual expenses for a typical middle-class household within 24–36 months in jurisdictions that adopt the package; larger gains over 5 years as supply scales.

Top 5 highest-ROI reforms

1. Housing supply surge (state/local)
   • By-right building in already-developed areas; end parking minimums; legalize duplex–fourplex (“missing middle”); time-limited permits (shot clocks); allow factory-built/modular homes; performance-based building codes.
   • Why: housing is the biggest line item. More units = lower rents/mortgages. Evidence shows double-digit rent reduction over time where supply is liberalized.
2. Healthcare affordability through choice and transparency (federal + state + private)
   • Enforce real price transparency; expand HSAs and legalize low-cost catastrophic plans; allow insurance across state lines; repeal certificate-of-need; expand scope-of-practice; accelerate generics/biosimilars.
   • Private: scale direct primary care (DPC) and cash pricing; employer HSA contributions.
3. Abundant, reliable energy via permitting freedom (federal + state)
   • One-year shot clocks for energy, transmission, pipelines, and industrial permits; fast-track small modular nuclear; open responsible oil/gas leasing; streamline distributed energy interconnection; allow third-party power sales where blocked.
   • Why: energy is an input to everything—lowering it reduces prices economy-wide.
4. Cut shipping, trade, and logistics costs (federal + local)
   • Lower/phase out consumer-facing tariffs; modernize antidumping rules; repeal/relax Jones Act cabotage constraints; enable port automation; flexible trucking rules that preserve safety; 24/7 port operations.
   • Result: cheaper goods, food, and building materials.
5. Work, skills, and childcare freedom (state + private)
   • End degree requirements for public jobs; universal licensing recognition; prune low-value occupational licenses; expand apprenticeships; legalize micro-schools/pods; rationalize childcare ratios/square-footage rules that don’t add safety.
   • Outcome: more earners, more providers, lower service prices.

What not to do (costs go up)

• No rent control, wage/price controls, or new entitlement cliffs.
• Avoid restrictive green/industrial policy that blocks build-out.
• Don’t inflate demand with deficit checks while supply is constrained.
• Don’t cartelize via over-licensing or protectionism.

Quick “run” of the model for a typical middle-class household

• Baseline: two adults, two kids; mortgage or rent ~$2,200/month; employer plan with $6–8k family OOP max; utilities/transport typical suburb.
• 24–36 month savings in reforming areas:
  • Housing: -8% to -12% = $2,100–$3,200/yr
  • Healthcare (DPC + catastrophic + HSA + transparency): -15% to -25% = $2,000–$3,500/yr
  • Energy/fuels/utilities: -10% to -20% = $600–$1,200/yr
  • Goods/food from trade/logistics reform: -2% to -4% = $400–$800/yr
  • Childcare (if applicable): -10% to -20% = $1,000–$3,000/yr
  • Total: roughly $6,000–$12,000/year, compounding as supply expands.

Implementation plan (fastest path)

• Federal 12–18 month sprint
  • Permitting: statutory shot clocks and judicial review deadlines for energy/transmission/industrial projects; streamline NEPA/ESA without weakening standards; “build-by-right” for projects meeting clear rules.
  • Healthcare: enforce price transparency with real penalties; legalize true catastrophic + HSA pairing; accelerate generics/biosimilars approvals; ban anti-competitive PBM gag clauses; end federal CON incentives.
  • Trade/logistics: reduce recent consumer-facing tariffs; pilot Jones Act waivers on high-cost routes; enable port automation; safety-based but flexible trucking reforms; greenlight more nuclear via NRC modernization.
• State and local (biggest near-term impact)
  • Zoning: legalize duplex–fourplex citywide; end parking minimums near jobs/transit; deadline-based permits; allow ADUs statewide; accept factory-built housing by code.
  • Licensing/work: universal license recognition; sunset/peer-review of licenses; kill degree inflation in public hiring.
  • Childcare/education: legalize pods/micro-schools; modernize ratios/space regs that don’t improve safety; expand apprenticeships and CTE.
• Private sector actions you can do now
  • Employers: offer DPC membership + HSA contributions + catastrophic wrap; skills-based hiring; mobility bonuses instead of noncompetes; housing assistance via low-interest down payment loans.
  • Builders: adopt modular/offsite methods; standardize plans; use by-right pathways aggressively.
  • Health providers: publish cash prices; DPC panels; reference-based pricing contracts.
  • Utilities/energy: pre-permit standard projects; long-term PPAs to cut risk premiums.

Guardrails and fairness

• Transparency dashboards for permit timelines and healthcare prices.
• Sunset clauses/regulatory budgets to prevent creep.
• Competitive neutrality: tech- and fuel-agnostic rules; no favored firms.
• Environmental standards preserved via clear, predictable rules rather than delay-by-litigation.
• Work rewards: favor pro-work tax changes (e.g., full expensing, lower marginal rates at middle incomes) over new transfer programs.

Metrics to track quarterly

• Median rent-to-income ratio by metro
• Time-to-permit and units permitted per 1,000 residents
• Premiums + OOP spending per covered life; DPC enrollment; generic share
• Residential/commercial electricity prices; industrial power cost
• Port dwell times; trucking cost per mile; tariff-weighted import price index
• Childcare cost per slot; number of licensed providers
• Real median weekly earnings growth

 I can tailor a 12-month action checklist for:

• A federal government, the president and Congress

Here’s a 12‑month, execution‑ready checklist for the President and Congress to materially cut middle‑class costs by expanding supply, choice, and competition—without new permanent entitlements, price controls, or heavy mandates.

Operating model

• North Star: lower household costs via more supply, faster builds, transparent prices, and open competition.
• Lanes: Executive (immediate), Legislative (within 6–9 months), Implementation (continuous).
• Governance: White House “Cost of Living War Room” co-led by OMB/OIRA; weekly unblock meetings; public dashboards.

Month 1–3: Launch and quick wins
President (executive actions)

• Stand up the War Room
  • EO: designate OMB/OIRA lead; set 6 KPIs: CPI-shelter; electricity/industrial power; family premiums + OOP; port/trucking dwell times; childcare cost per slot; median rent-to-income.
  • OMB memo: governmentwide permit “shot clocks,” page limits, lead-agency rules; publish a single permits dashboard (project name, start date, deadline, status).
• Permitting and energy
  • CEQ finalizes One Federal Decision implementation; expand categorical exclusions; strict 1–2 year clocks with automatic default approvals if deadlines are missed.
  • DOE designates additional NIETC corridors; FERC fast-tracks queue reform and cost allocation for transmission.
  • NRC: set schedule to finalize Part 53 for advanced nuclear; publish guidance allowing fleet licensing for identical SMR copies; commit to <24-month review for proven designs.
• Healthcare affordability
  • HHS/CMS: enforce hospital and insurer price-transparency rules with meaningful penalties; require machine-readable and shopper tools to be audited; tie Medicare participation to compliance.
  • HHS guidance: allow HSA use for direct primary care (DPC) fees; expand STLDI duration/renewability (within statute); restore association health plans within guardrails.
  • FDA: accelerate generics/biosimilars—parallel reviews, interchangeable status where data supports; monthly backlog burn-down targets.
• Trade/logistics
  • USTR/Commerce: initiate tariff relief reviews on consumer-facing 301/232 lines; publish a 90-day list for suspension.
  • DOT/Maritime: 24/7 port ops guidance for federal ports; performance reporting (turn times, dwell).
• Work and childcare
  • OPM: codify skills-based hiring and end degree inflation for federal jobs where not required by law; publish model for states.
  • HHS: model rules for childcare safety that cut non-safety costs (ratio/space flexibility) for states; expand block-grant waivers enabling micro-care pilots.

Congress (file and mark up)

• File the Abundance and Affordability Act (AAA), a single package with 6 titles:
  1. Permitting Freedom: codify One Federal Decision; 2-year NEPA clock, 150-day judicial review, page limits, lead agency; bond requirement for injunctions to curb delay-by-litigation.
  2. Energy Abundance: NRC modernization (Part 53 deadline, fleet licensing for identical SMRs, foreign reference plants); federal siting backstops for major transmission with firm timelines; pipeline approvals with time limits.
  3. Health Choice and Transparency: statutory hospital/insurer price transparency; PBM transparency and pass-through in federal programs; ban spread pricing in FEHB/Medicare/Medicaid; legalize catastrophic + HSA pairing; allow interstate insurance compacts; protect DPC from being regulated as insurance; repeal federal CON incentives.
  4. Trade and Shipping Freedom: targeted tariff sunset/review; pilot Jones Act waivers for noncontiguous routes and emergencies; streamline port automation and 24/7 ops for federally supported ports.
  5. Work and Skills: skills-first federal hiring; expand IRAP-style apprenticeships; portable Pell for short, high-ROI programs with outcomes guardrails; nationwide recognition of out-of-state licenses for federal contracting.
  6. Regulatory Budget and Sunsets: cap net new compliance costs; 10-year sunset for major rules unless reauthorized; mandatory retrospective reviews.
• Tax sidecar (pro-work, supply-oriented; pair with pay‑fors): make full expensing and neutral cost recovery permanent; lower middle-bracket marginal rates; double Section 45Q/48C bureaucratic friction cuts (process reform, not more credits).

Month 4–6: Move the big levers
President

• Enforcement and transparency sprint
  • HHS issues first wave of noncompliance penalties for price transparency; publish hospital/insurer compliance leaderboard.
  • OMB dashboard goes live: permit timelines, health price compliance, port performance, interconnection wait times, nuclear docket clocks.
• Energy and buildout
  • DOE publishes standardized environmental review templates for common energy/industrial projects to compress timelines.
  • FERC and DOE finalize at least two NIETC corridors; coordinate with DOD to deconflict mission areas quickly.
  • Interior schedules quarterly oil/gas leasing with predictable rules; BLM finalizes categorical exclusions for low-impact projects.
• FDA/USPTO competition
  • Joint FDA/USPTO action to curb patent thickets and evergreening; publish list of drugs with delayed generic entry and action plans.
• Procurement for competition
  • GSA/DOD pilot long-term power purchase agreements (where allowed) to lock in lower rates and de-risk new generation/transmission.
• Communications
  • Monthly “Affordability Scorecard” briefing from the War Room.

Congress

• Hearings and markups (target committees: EPW/ENR/Energy&Commerce/HELP/Ways&Means/Finance/Commerce/Transportation)
• Floor passage of AAA in at least one chamber; split if necessary into two vehicles: Permitting/Energy/Trade and Health/Work/RegBudget.
• Advance bipartisan PBM transparency and site-neutral payment pilots for Medicare (budget-neutral).

Month 7–9: Passage and implementation
President

• Sign the AAA (or its components). Immediately issue implementation EOs/memos with deadlines.
• Agency execution
  • CEQ/agency rules to meet statutory clocks within 60–90 days.
  • NRC accepts first fleet-license applications under new framework; publish queue order.
  • HHS final rule aligning transparency, anti-gag clauses, and machine-readable standards; audit contractors in place.
  • DOT implements 24/7 port ops and grants tied to automation outcomes; FMCSA flexibility on safe productivity enhancers (e.g., split sleeper, digitized logs).
• Trade actions
  • Suspend or lower the first tranche of consumer-facing tariffs; publish impact on import price index.
  • Issue Jones Act targeted waivers for noncontiguous routes with high consumer cost impact, while Congress advances structural reform.
• State compacts and alignment
  • Convene governors to adopt by-right housing, ADUs, missing-middle, parking reform; offer technical assistance and priority interfacing on federal permits where states adopt.

Congress

• Conference and final votes; attach remaining components to must-pass vehicles if needed.
• Pass narrow Jones Act reform (territories/noncontiguous pilot + emergency flexibility).
• Pass HSA+DPC clarification and catastrophic plans; interstate compacts safe harbor; PBM reforms for federal programs.

Month 10–12: Scale and lock in gains
President

• Delivery focus
  • Publish first year savings: average hospital service cash prices vs. negotiated; share of fully compliant hospitals/plans; NIETC progress; average interconnection time; number of projects hitting permit deadlines.
  • HHS: expand DPC pilots for FEHB employees; reference-based pricing pilots for federal plans.
  • DOE/FERC: sign initial transmission cost-allocation agreements; milestone grid projects break ground.
  • NRC: SMR early-site permits approved; at least one advanced design on a <24-month review track.
• Continuous deregulation
  • OIRA implements the first regulatory budget; agencies identify 10 outdated rules each for repeal or simplification; public tracker.
• Private-sector mobilization
  • Launch “Build Faster, Pay Less” challenge with builders and manufacturers to standardize designs and use offsite/modular that meet federal/state codes.

Congress

• Enact any remaining components; ensure CBO-scored pay‑fors:
  • Rescind unobligated COVID-era balances.
  • Sunset low-value corporate welfare and narrow tax expenditures that distort competition.
  • Cut tariff revenues in tandem with duplicative subsidy rollbacks to stay deficit-neutral.
• Oversight: quarterly hearings on permit timelines, transparency compliance, PBM behavior, transmission progress.

What to measure quarterly

• CPI-shelter and rent-to-income by metro; permits issued per 1,000 residents; median time to permit.
• Hospital/insurer transparency compliance; DPC/HSA adoption; generic/biosimilar share by spend.
• Residential and industrial electricity prices; interconnection and transmission timelines.
• Port/trucking dwell times; tariff-weighted import prices; shipping cost to AK/HI/PR under waivers.
• Childcare cost per slot; number of providers; degree-free federal hires share.
• Aggregate household savings estimate vs. baseline.

Pay‑for and fiscal discipline (no new permanent entitlements)

• Offset any transition costs by rescissions, ending duplicative credits, and cutting protectionist tariffs that raise prices.
• Regulatory budget caps compliance costs rather than expanding subsidies.
• Use transparent, rules-based incentives (if any), time-limited with auto-sunset.

Risk controls

• Preserve environmental and safety standards through clear, fast rules and firm timelines; more certainty, less litigation delay.
• Competitive neutrality: no firm-specific carve-outs; tech-agnostic permitting.
• Sunset clauses and mandatory retrospective reviews to prevent program creep.

Expected 12‑month outcomes in reforming jurisdictions/sectors

• Measurable drop in posted cash prices for common medical services; PBM spread largely eliminated in federal programs.
• Permit timelines visibly shorter; several grid, pipeline, and industrial projects reach approval/groundbreaking.
• First tranche of tariff relief lowers import price index and select consumer goods prices.
• Early signs of rent deceleration where state/local partners liberalize zoning (federal technical support + finance rules aligned).
• Household-level savings beginning in healthcare/energy/logistics, with housing gains compounding over 24–36 months.

Finally:

Below is a concise, execution‑ready, week‑by‑week Gantt (52 weeks) with owners, key statutory/regulatory cites, and draft text blocks: one Executive Order template and a compact “Abundance and Affordability Act” (AAA) with six titles. It’s designed to be pro‑competition, pro‑supply, pro‑choice—with limited government and firm timelines.

Week‑by‑week Gantt (owners • key cites)
Notes

• Tracks: Executive (EOP/Agencies), Legislative (Congress), Delivery (Implementation/Reporting).
• Owners: WH (White House), OMB/OIRA, CEQ, DOE, FERC, Interior/BLM, NRC, HHS/CMS, FDA, USPTO, DOL, OPM, DOT/FMCSA/MARAD, DHS/CBP, USTR, Commerce/ITA/ITA, GSA, GPO, GAO, CBO; House/Senate committees noted inline.
• Common cites: NEPA 42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.; FAST‑41 42 U.S.C. 4370m et seq.; CEQ regs 40 CFR 1500‑1508; FPA 16 U.S.C. 791a et seq. (esp. §824p); AEA 42 U.S.C. 2011 et seq.; NRC 10 CFR Parts 50/52/53; Hospital Transparency 45 CFR Part 180; Transparency in Coverage 26 CFR Part 54; 29 CFR Part 2590; 45 CFR Part 147; STLDI 45 CFR 144.103; HSA 26 U.S.C. 223; Hatch‑Waxman 21 U.S.C. 355(j); BPCIA 42 U.S.C. 262(k); Section 301 19 U.S.C. 2411; Section 232 19 U.S.C. 1862; Jones Act 46 U.S.C. 55102, waivers 46 U.S.C. 501; FMCSA HOS 49 CFR Part 395; OPM hiring 5 U.S.C. 3301‑3302; 5 CFR Parts 300, 338.

Weeks 1–4: Stand‑up and immediate actions

• Wk 1

  • WH: Issue EO establishing Cost‑of‑Living War Room and permit shot‑clocks; designate OMB/OIRA/CEQ leads; mandate unified permit dashboard. (NEPA/FAST‑41)
  • OMB: Memo to agencies on page limits, concurrent reviews, default approvals if clocks lapse. (40 CFR 1501.10; FAST‑41)
  • HHS/CMS: Compliance letters to hospitals/insurers on price transparency; audit plan and penalty schedule. (45 CFR Part 180; 26/29/45 CFR)
  • Congress: AAA introduced; referrals to EPW, ENR, E&C, HELP, W&M, Finance, Commerce, T&I, HSGAC; request CBO/CRS support.

• Wk 2

  • CEQ: Publish OFD implementation guidance (lead agency, joint schedules, page/clock limits). (40 CFR 1501, 1502)
  • DOE/FERC: NIETC corridor scoping kickoff; queue reform alignment. (FPA §216; Dockets RM22‑14‑000 et al.)
  • USTR/Commerce: Launch tariff review docket identifying consumer‑facing lines for suspension. (19 U.S.C. 2411; 1862)
  • OPM: Skills‑based hiring memo; degree‑inflation rollback. (5 CFR 300/338)

• Wk 3

  • NRC: Publish timeline to finalize Part 53 for advanced reactors and fleet licensing policy. (AEA; 10 CFR Part 53)
  • FDA/USPTO: MOU to curb patent thickets; joint list of delayed generics/biosimilars; IPR coordination. (21 U.S.C. 355; 42 U.S.C. 262; 35 U.S.C. 311‑319)
  • DOT/MARAD: 24/7 port ops guidance for federal ports; performance metrics. (46 U.S.C. 50302 grant conditions)

• Wk 4

  • HHS/Treasury/DOL: Draft guidance clarifying HSA eligibility for DPC fees; STLDI flexibility within existing regs. (26 U.S.C. 223; 45 CFR 144.103)
  • WH: Public KPI dashboard scaffolding; data feeds MOUs signed.
  • House/Senate: Scheduling of first hearings (Permitting/Energy/Health/Trade).

Weeks 5–8: Dashboards live; first enforcement; markups begin

• Wk 5

  • OMB: Permits dashboard v1 live (project, clock start/deadline/status). (FAST‑41 §4370m‑2)
  • HHS: First transparency penalty notices; publish compliance leaderboard.
  • Committees: EPW/ENR hearings on Permitting/Energy titles.

• Wk 6

  • DOE/CEQ: Standardized EA/EIS templates for common energy/industrial projects. (40 CFR 1507.3)
  • FERC: NOPR on transmission cost allocation and backstop timelines aligned to NIETC. (FPA §§205‑206, 216)
  • HELP/E&C: Health transparency and PBM hearings.

• Wk 7

  • USTR: Publish candidate tariff suspension list; 90‑day comment period. (19 U.S.C. 2411)
  • DOT/FMCSA: NPRM on flexible split‑sleeper, digitized logs quality‑of‑life, without reducing safety. (49 CFR 395)
  • Commerce/CBP: Expand 24/7 terminal operations pilots; Trusted Trader expansion plan. (19 CFR Parts 111, 113)

• Wk 8

  • House markup: AAA Titles I–II (Permitting, Energy). (EPW/ENR/E&C)
  • HHS: Insurer transparency audits commence; gag‑clause enforcement reminders. (29 U.S.C. 1185d; 45 CFR 147.210)

Weeks 9–12: Floor movement; first trade and energy steps

• Wk 9

  • Floor: House passes Titles I–II; Senate holds joint hearing on AAA package.
  • Interior/BLM: Quarterly leasing schedule issued; categorical exclusions for low‑impact projects proposed. (42 U.S.C. 15942)

• Wk 10

  • WH: First monthly Affordability Scorecard release.
  • NRC: Fleet‑license guidance draft; <24‑month review pathway for proven designs.

• Wk 11

  • USTR: Issue temporary suspension on narrow consumer‑facing tariff tranche pending final rule. (19 U.S.C. 2411—implement via Fed. Reg. notice)
  • GSA/DOD: Launch competitive procurement pilots for long‑term PPAs where authorized.

• Wk 12

  • Senate: Markup Titles I–II; House: Markup Titles III–VI.
  • OIRA: Regulatory budget memo draft to agencies (caps, retrospective review lists).

Weeks 13–16: Passage wave 1; heavy implementation

• Wk 13

  • House: Floor vote on all AAA Titles.
  • HHS: NPRM aligning hospital/insurer transparency standards; audit contractors onboarded.

• Wk 14

  • DOE/FERC: Designate first NIETC corridors; begin pre‑app consultations with state PUCs. (FPA §216(a))
  • DOT/MARAD: Port automation grant NOFO with outcome‑based conditions.

• Wk 15

  • Senate: Floor passage of Titles I–II; conference set.
  • FDA: Parallel review pathway guidance; monthly generic/biosimilar backlog burn‑down targets.

• Wk 16

  • WH: Sign Permitting/Energy titles if split; issue implementing EO/memos with statutory deadlines.
  • CEQ/Agencies: OFD rules aligned to statute within 60–90 days.

Weeks 17–20: Health/trade movement; workforce reforms

• Wk 17

  • Senate: Markup Titles III–VI (Health, Trade, Work, Reg Budget).
  • OPM: Final skills‑based hiring rule; publish dashboards.

• Wk 18

  • HHS: First wave collection of fines; publish non‑compliant entities list; FEHB plan guidance on price tools.
  • USTR/Commerce: Finalize tariff suspensions round 1; announce next review cycle.

• Wk 19

  • DOT/FMCSA: Finalize targeted flexibility rule; port performance dashboards go live.
  • USPTO: PTAB fast‑track for challenges on drugs without generic entry >30 months post‑LOE.

• Wk 20

  • Senate: Floor vote on Titles III–VI.
  • Treasury/DOL/HHS: Final guidance—HSA+DPC; STLDI; AHP guardrails (within statute).

Weeks 21–24: Conference; signature; scale agency delivery

• Wk 21

  • Conference completes; AAA enrolled bill prepared.
  • DOE: Interconnection process reforms aligned with FERC queue reform best practices.

• Wk 22

  • President signs full AAA; immediate OMB/CEQ/HHS/DOT implementation memos with due dates.

• Wk 23

  • CEQ: Final NEPA time limits/page limits; lead‑agency assignment rules; judicial review coordination. (AAA Title I)
  • FERC: Final rule on cost allocation and backstop coordination where statute empowers. (AAA Title II)

• Wk 24

  • HHS: Final transparency rule; PBM pass‑through in FEHB/Medicare/Medicaid per statute. (AAA Title III)
  • USTR: Tariff sunset schedule published with consumer price impact analysis. (AAA Title IV)

Weeks 25–32: Visible cost reductions begin

• Wk 25

  • Interior/BLM: Implement new CEs; first batch of low‑impact projects approved within 90–120 days.
  • NRC: Accept first fleet‑license applications under Part 53 framework. (AAA Title II)

• Wk 26

  • DOT/MARAD: 24/7 ops at pilot ports fully active; publish turn‑time/dwell reductions.
  • CBP: Trusted Trader enhancements deployed to reduce clearance times.

• Wk 27

  • HHS: FEHB DPC pilots announced; reference‑based pricing pilots tested.
  • GAO: Oversight plan for permit timelines and transparency compliance.

• Wk 28

  • DOE/FERC/PUCs: Initial transmission cost‑allocation agreements executed for priority projects.
  • OIRA: Regulatory budget baselines published; agencies post 10 rules each for repeal/simplification.

• Wk 29

  • USTR: Second tariff relief tranche considered; stakeholder outreach.
  • DOT/FMCSA: Report on trucking cost/mile and safety outcomes under new flexibility.

• Wk 30

  • HHS: Generics/biosimilars uptake campaign; publish delayed‑entry list and action status.
  • USPTO: Data on thicket challenges, outcomes, cycle times.

• Wk 31

  • CEQ: Permit clock compliance report; default approvals invoked where lawful; escalate to War Room.
  • GSA/DOD: First PPAs executed; publish price reductions.

• Wk 32

  • Congress: Oversight hearings on implementation; consider minor technical fixes.

Weeks 33–40: Consolidate and expand

• Wk 33

  • State alignment summit: governors invited to adopt by‑right housing, ADUs, parking reform; federal TA offered.

• Wk 34

  • HHS: Enforcement escalations; non‑compliant hospitals/plans risk exclusion from Medicare/FEHB contracting (as authorized).

• Wk 35

  • DOE: Pre‑permitting for standard projects; issue playbooks to states.

• Wk 36

  • USTR: Third tariff review cycle; focus on food/building materials inputs.
  • DOT: Automation projects selected; labor neutrality ensured via competitive neutrality and safety standards.

• Wk 37

  • NRC: Early site permits issued for at least one SMR; <24‑month technical review lanes in use.

• Wk 38

  • FERC/ISOs: Interconnection timelines published; queue reductions reported.
  • OPM: Degree‑free hires share dashboard public.

• Wk 39

  • HHS: Site‑neutral Medicare pilots launched; PBM spread pricing eliminated in federal programs.

• Wk 40

  • OIRA: First regulatory budget true‑up; adjust caps; publish cost savings.

Weeks 41–52: Lock‑in, evaluate, and iterate

• Wk 41

  • War Room: Annual report on household savings; metro rent‑to‑income; energy/port KPIs.

• Wk 42

  • CEQ/Agencies: Second wave of categorical exclusions and programmatic reviews.

• Wk 43

  • USTR: Permanent sunset of specified tariff lines; report import price index declines.

• Wk 44

  • HHS: DPC and catastrophic adoption metrics; OOP reductions for adopters.

• Wk 45

  • DOE/FERC: Groundbreakings for first NIETC projects; pipeline project approvals within statutory clocks.

• Wk 46

  • DOT/CBP: Port dwell times down; expand 24/7 ops to additional hubs.

• Wk 47

  • NRC: Publish lessons learned; queue order transparency; prep next fleet licenses.

• Wk 48

  • Congress: Oversight + sunset prep; identify low‑value programs/tax expenditures to rescind.

• Wk 49

  • OIRA: Retrospective reviews—propose repeal/simplification of 50+ rules.

• Wk 50

  • GAO/IGs: Independent verification of KPIs and compliance.

• Wk 51

  • WH: Year‑end Affordability Scorecard; announce Year‑2 targets.

• Wk 52

  • Congress: Technical corrections/cleanup bill as needed; re‑baseline regulatory budget for Year‑2.

Draft Executive Order (template language)
Title: Accelerating Permitting, Price Transparency, and Competition to Reduce the Cost of Living

By the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including 3 U.S.C. 301, the National Environmental Policy Act, FAST‑41, the Federal Power Act, the Atomic Energy Act, and the statutes governing the Departments and agencies referenced herein, it is hereby ordered:

Section 1. Policy. It is the policy of the United States to reduce the cost of living for American households by increasing supply, accelerating lawful permitting, enhancing price transparency, and promoting open competition, while maintaining high standards for safety, health, and the environment.

Sec. 2. Cost‑of‑Living War Room. (a) There is established a White House War Room co‑led by the Director of OMB and the Administrator of OIRA, with the Chair of CEQ, to coordinate agency actions that reduce household costs. (b) The War Room shall publish monthly dashboards on: permit timelines; energy/transmission milestones; healthcare price‑transparency compliance; port and trucking performance; and childcare affordability.

Sec. 3. One Federal Decision and Permit Shot‑Clocks. (a) CEQ shall, within 30 days, issue guidance requiring: designation of a lead agency; a single permitting timetable; concurrent environmental reviews; EIS page limits; and deadlines not to exceed 2 years for EIS and 1 year for EA, consistent with law. (b) Each agency shall post permit timetables publicly. (c) Where permitted by law, failure to act by a deadline shall result in default approvals or immediate elevation to the War Room.

Sec. 4. Energy and Infrastructure Build‑Out. (a) DOE and FERC shall identify and expedite National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors under FPA §216; coordinate on interconnection queue reforms. (b) NRC shall publish a schedule to finalize Part 53 advanced reactor rules and guidance enabling fleet licensing of identical small modular reactor (SMR) units with streamlined reviews.

Sec. 5. Healthcare Price Transparency and Choice. (a) HHS, in coordination with Treasury and Labor, shall audit compliance with hospital and health plan price‑transparency rules; assess penalties for noncompliance; and publish compliance leaderboards. (b) Within 60 days, the Secretaries shall issue guidance clarifying that direct primary care payments are qualified medical expenses and may be paid from HSAs to the extent permitted by law; and restore flexibility for short‑term, limited‑duration insurance.

Sec. 6. Trade and Logistics. (a) The USTR and the Secretary of Commerce shall identify consumer‑facing tariffs for suspension subject to law and report expected impacts on the import price index. (b) DOT and MARAD shall implement 24/7 port operations at federally supported ports and publish performance metrics.

Sec. 7. Federal Workforce and Skills. OPM shall implement skills‑based hiring and reduce degree requirements where not mandated by statute; publish quarterly metrics.

Sec. 8. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency. (b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

Draft Abundance and Affordability Act (AAA) — legislative text blocks
Note: Compact sample clauses; congressional counsel will conform to format and cross‑references.

Title I — Permitting Freedom and One Federal Decision
Section 101. Definitions. “Major Federal Action” and “Covered Project” have the meanings in NEPA and FAST‑41, respectively.
Section 102. Time Limits and Page Limits.
(a) Lead agencies shall complete environmental impact statements within 2 years of notice of intent and environmental assessments within 1 year.
(b) EIS shall not exceed 150 pages, or 300 pages for projects of extraordinary complexity; EAs shall not exceed 75 pages, exclusive of appendices.
Section 103. Concurrent Reviews and Lead Agency.
(a) A single lead agency shall establish a unified permitting timetable binding on participating agencies.
(b) Agencies shall conduct concurrent, not sequential, reviews absent express statutory prohibition.
Section 104. Judicial Review.
(a) Any claim seeking judicial review of a covered authorization shall be filed not later than 150 days after publication of the final agency action.
(b) Courts shall consider harms from delay; preliminary injunctive relief shall require a bond adequate to cover identifiable economic harm to the public interest.
Section 105. Elevation and Default Outcomes.
(a) Missed milestones shall be elevated to the head of the lead agency within 7 days.
(b) Where a statute allows discretionary deadlines, failure to act within the timetable shall constitute unreasonable delay for purposes of mandamus and immediate court‑set deadlines.
Section 106. Programmatic and Categorical Efficiencies.
(a) CEQ shall promulgate rules enabling programmatic environmental reviews and expanded categorical exclusions for repetitive, low‑impact activities within 180 days.

Title II — Energy Abundance and Reliable Infrastructure
Section 201. NRC Modernization.
(a) NRC shall finalize 10 CFR Part 53 advanced reactor licensing within 18 months of enactment.
(b) NRC shall permit fleet licensing for identical SMR units, allowing incorporation by reference of prior safety findings, and target <24‑month reviews for subsequent units.
Section 202. Transmission Backstop and Cost Allocation.
(a) DOE shall designate NIETC corridors under FPA §216; FERC shall have backstop siting authority where a state fails to act within 1 year after complete application.
(b) FERC shall promulgate rules for just and reasonable regional cost allocation consistent with beneficiary‑pays principles within 12 months.
Section 203. Interconnection and Pipelines.
(a) FERC shall set enforceable interconnection timelines with penalties and ready‑to‑build standards.
(b) PHMSA and relevant agencies shall issue pipeline permitting timelines not to exceed 18 months for cross‑jurisdictional projects, with concurrent reviews.

Title III — Health Choice, Price Transparency, and Competition
Section 301. Hospital and Health Plan Transparency.
(a) Hospital price transparency (45 CFR Part 180) is codified; noncompliance penalties shall be no less than the greater of current regulatory maximums or 0.1% of net patient revenue per day.
(b) Transparency in Coverage for group and individual plans is codified; plans shall maintain accurate machine‑readable files and consumer shopping tools subject to audit and civil monetary penalties.
Section 302. Direct Primary Care and HSAs.
(a) Section 223 of the Internal Revenue Code is amended to clarify that monthly direct primary care fees are qualified medical expenses and do not disqualify an individual from HSA eligibility; the Secretary shall issue guidance within 90 days.
Section 303. Catastrophic Plans and Interstate Choice.
(a) Catastrophic health plans shall be lawful offerings to all ages when paired with HSAs.
(b) States may form interstate insurance compacts; plans offered under approved compacts shall be deemed compliant in member states; McCarran‑Ferguson preserved.
Section 304. PBM Transparency in Federal Programs.
(a) In FEHB, Medicare, and Medicaid, PBMs shall operate on a pass‑through basis; spread pricing is prohibited; all remuneration must be fully disclosed to the plan sponsor.
Section 305. Competition and Entry.
(a) The Secretary of HHS shall not condition federal grants on adoption of Certificate‑of‑Need laws; any existing federal incentives for CON are repealed.
(b) GAO shall evaluate effects of scope‑of‑practice modernization on access and costs.

Title IV — Trade, Shipping, and Logistics Freedom
Section 401. Tariff Review and Sunset.
(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, consumer‑facing tariff lines specified by the USTR and the Secretary of Commerce shall be suspended for 24 months, extendable by the President upon certification of consumer benefit and negligible national security harm.
(b) Section 301 measures shall be reviewed every 12 months for least‑restrictive alternatives; publish impact on the import price index.
Section 402. Jones Act Waiver Pilot.
(a) The Secretary of Homeland Security may waive 46 U.S.C. 55102 for defined noncontiguous domestic routes when the Secretary certifies that adequate U.S.‑flag capacity is unavailable at reasonable rates; waivers limited to 24 months, renewable upon showing of continuing need.
Section 403. Ports and Trucking Productivity.
(a) Federally supported ports shall operate on a 24/7 basis as a grant condition where feasible; DOT shall not disallow safe automation investments.
(b) FMCSA shall implement regulatory flexibility improving utilization and safety, including split‑sleeper options and digitized log enhancements.

Title V — Work, Skills, and Mobility
Section 501. Skills‑Based Federal Hiring.
(a) Agencies shall not require a four‑year degree for positions unless a statute explicitly mandates it or a job analysis demonstrates it is essential; OPM shall issue implementing regulations within 90 days.
Section 502. National License Recognition for Federal Contracting.
(a) A professional license valid in any state shall be recognized for performance of federal contracts nationwide, subject to public safety exceptions defined by OMB/OFPP.
Section 503. High‑ROI Learning.
(a) Establish portable Pell eligibility for short‑duration, high‑ROI programs meeting outcomes standards; GAO to audit annually.

Title VI — Regulatory Budget and Sunsets
Section 601. Regulatory Budget.
(a) OIRA shall set annual caps on net regulatory costs per agency; agencies must offset new costs with equal or greater cost reductions unless exempted for national security or statutory mandates.
Section 602. Retrospective Reviews and Sunsets.
(a) Major rules shall sunset after 10 years unless re‑promulgated following a retrospective review.
(b) Agencies shall submit annual lists of rules for repeal or simplification, with quantified cost savings.

Key owners by title for implementation

• Title I: CEQ (lead), OMB/OIRA, DOT, DOI, USACE, EPA, DOE; Committees: EPW, ENR, T&I.
• Title II: DOE, FERC, NRC, Interior/BLM, PHMSA; Committees: ENR, E&C.
• Title III: HHS/CMS, Treasury, DOL, OPM, GAO, FTC (competition); Committees: HELP, Finance, W&M, E&C, Oversight.
• Title IV: USTR, Commerce, DHS/CBP, DOT/MARAD/FMCSA; Committees: Finance, W&M, Commerce, T&I, Homeland.
• Title V: OPM, OMB/OFPP, DOL/ETA, ED; Committees: HSGAC, Oversight, HELP, Ed & Labor.
• Title VI: OMB/OIRA; Committees: Homeland/GP, Oversight, Budget.

Oversight and KPIs to publish monthly

• CPI‑shelter and rent‑to‑income by metro; permits per 1,000 residents; median time‑to‑permit.
• Hospital/insurer transparency compliance; DPC/HSA adoption; generic/biosimilar share.
• Residential/industrial electricity prices; interconnection and transmission milestones.
• Port dwell times; trucking cost per mile; tariff‑weighted import price index.
• Childcare cost per slot; degree‑free federal hires share.
• Aggregate household savings vs. baseline.