Tuesday, May 5, 2026

A new map of the US, where the states are more equal in size and population

 

  • I’d keep Alaska and Hawaii as they are, and redraw the Lower 48 into 62 compact, metro‑centric states of roughly 5.2–5.6 million people each. Total: 64 states.
  • Borders would mostly follow county lines, commuting zones, watersheds, and major ridgelines rather than 19th‑century survey lines.
  • The result is many more, smaller jurisdictions with comparable population and more even political weight, plus clear “opt‑out” choices for residents and businesses by moving short distances—maximizing competition among states and minimizing central bottlenecks.

How I’d draw it (rules of the game)

  1. Equal population first: target 5.3M ±5% per state in the Lower 48.
  2. Contiguity and compactness: no exclaves; minimize weird tendrils.
  3. Functional regions: use real labor markets and media/commute sheds as the backbone.
  4. Legible lines: snap to county lines and natural features; avoid splitting cities and school districts where possible.
  5. 3‑hour rule: from any point to the state capital by highway in ≤3 hours.
  6. Open process: publish the code and data; counties may petition to switch states by local referendum every 10 years—built‑in competitive pressure.

What it would look like (high‑level)

  • West (15 states): California becomes six states (North Coast, Bay Area, Central Valley, LA Core, Orange–Inland, San Diego–Imperial). The rest of the West organizes around actual basins and corridors: Puget Sound; Portland–Willamette; Inland Northwest (Spokane–Tri‑Cities–Coeur d’Alene); Columbia–Snake (Boise + Eastern OR/WA wheat belt); Wasatch (SLC–Provo); Front Range North (Fort Collins–Denver–Boulder) and Front Range South (Colorado Springs–Pueblo); Phoenix Metro; Tucson–Borderlands; Las Vegas–Mojave.
  • South (24 states): Texas becomes five or six (DFW; Houston–Galveston; Austin–Hill Country; San Antonio–I‑35 South; Rio Grande/Valley; West Texas–Permian–Llano Estacado with parts of eastern NM). Gulf and Southeast align to metros: New Orleans–Delta; Baton Rouge–Acadiana; Mississippi Pine Belt–Coast; Alabama split Birmingham/Huntsville–Shoals and Mobile–Wiregrass; Florida becomes four (Panhandle–Big Bend; Jacksonville–First Coast; Orlando–Space Coast; Tampa Bay; South Florida/Miami–Broward–Palm Beach). Carolinas and Georgia center on Atlanta; Charlotte–Piedmont; Research Triangle–Coastal Plain; Charleston–Lowcountry; plus Tennessee Valley, Nashville–Middle TN, and Memphis–Delta.
  • Midwest (12 states): Chicago Core and a Chicagoland Ring (collar counties + NW Indiana + SE Wisconsin); Milwaukee–Madison–Fox Valley; Twin Cities–Upper Mississippi; Detroit–Ann Arbor–Toledo; Cleveland–Akron–Youngstown; Columbus–Dayton; Cincinnati–NKY–SE Indiana; St. Louis; Kansas City; Indianapolis; an I‑80 Heartland state (Omaha–Lincoln–Council Bluffs–western IA).
  • Northeast (11 states): New York becomes four metro‑balanced states (NYC Core; Long Island; North Jersey Metro; Hudson–SW CT–Westchester); Greater Boston; Southern New England (RI + eastern CT + south coastal MA); Northern New England (ME/NH/VT north); Upstate West (Buffalo–Rochester–Niagara); Upstate East (Albany–Mohawk–Syracuse); a Lehigh–Scranton–Harrisburg Keystone state; Philadelphia–Delaware Valley.
  • Mid‑Atlantic capital region: a DC–Capital Beltway state (DC core remains a small federal district, surrounded by a state made from suburban MD/VA counties), and a Chesapeake state (Baltimore–Annapolis–Bay counties).

A few concrete examples to make it tangible

  • Bay Area State (~5.4M): San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda core + Marin/Contra Costa as needed to hit target.
  • LA Core State (~5.5M): most of LA City + inner ring; adjacent Orange–Inland State (~5.3M) with remaining LA County exurbs, Orange County, and western Inland Empire.
  • Puget Sound State (~5.3M): King, Pierce, Snohomish, plus adjacent counties as needed; Inland Northwest State (~5.2M): Spokane–Tri‑Cities–Idaho Panhandle.
  • DFW State (~5.4M): Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton cores; Austin–Hill Country State (~5.3M): Travis, Williamson, Hays, plus corridor counties.
  • Detroit–Toledo State (~5.3M): Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw + Lucas County, OH.
  • NYC Core State (~5.4M): Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens + a few inner‑ring NJ/NY counties to balance; Long Island State (~5.2M): Nassau, Suffolk + eastern Queens equivalents; North Jersey Metro (~5.3M): Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Passaic, Union; Hudson–SW CT–Westchester (~5.3M).
  • Philadelphia–Delaware Valley (~5.4M): Philly, suburban PA ring, South Jersey inner ring, and New Castle County, DE.
  • Chicago Core (~5.4M): Chicago + Cook core; Chicagoland Ring (~5.3M): collar counties + Lake County, IN + Kenosha/Racine, WI.

Why this is an upgrade (through a techno‑libertarian lens)

  • More exit, more voice: Dozens more governments competing on taxes, schools, zoning, safety, and business climate. If one jurisdiction ossifies, people and firms can move a few miles, not across a continent.
  • Flatter federal skew: States are roughly population‑balanced, shrinking the small‑state advantage in the Senate while preserving a hard check on centralization.
  • Better fit to how we actually live: Laws and infrastructure align to real economic regions and watersheds, improving transit, housing, and disaster response.
  • Built‑in experimentation: Each state can be a regulatory sandbox for energy, healthcare, education, and land‑use reforms; the winners get copied, the losers fade.
  • Open governance as a norm: The mapping algorithm, data, and constraints are public—citizens can verify, fork, and propose improvements.

How we’d actually make the lines (transparent algorithm)

  • Start with a 1 km population grid for the Lower 48.
  • Seed at the centers of major commuting zones and along under‑served rural corridors.
  • Grow contiguous regions until hitting 5.3M ±5%, optimizing an objective like
    cost = w1·population_deviation + w2·boundary_length + w3·noncompactness + w4·commute_split + w5·watershed_crossings,
    with hard constraints on contiguity and the 3‑hour rule.
  • Snap to county lines and natural features; then run a local‑referendum pass to fix obviously ugly splits.
  • Publish v1; allow counties to petition into adjacent states in the first 2 cycles to reach stable equilibria.

Caveats and carve‑outs

  • Native nations choose: remain as today, form multi‑county sovereign partners, or integrate—by their own vote.
  • Federal core stays small: a shrunken District for the Capitol complex; everything else joins the surrounding state.
  • Cross‑state metros are a feature, not a bug: yes, many new states straddle today’s boundaries; that’s the point—govern to real networks.

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