Rising bond market yields, and rising average rate of profit, and interest rates

 

               Rising bond market yields

Rising bond yields usually mean markets expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer or raise them—because investors are pricing in stronger growth, stickier inflation, or more risk. But the “why” behind the move matters.

How to read it:

• Short maturities (especially the 2‑year Treasury): Closest to the Fed’s next few decisions. If the 2‑year yield jumps above the current fed funds rate, the market is leaning toward hikes or a delay in cuts. If it falls below, the market is leaning toward cuts.
• Long maturities (10‑ to 30‑year): Mix of expected future Fed policy, long‑run inflation/growth expectations, and a “term premium.” A rise here can signal higher inflation expectations or simply more supply/risk premium—not necessarily imminent Fed hikes.

Common scenarios behind rising yields and what they imply for the Fed:

• Stronger economic data: Points to tighter labor markets and demand—raises odds of hikes or “higher for longer.”
• Hotter inflation prints or rising inflation expectations: Increases pressure on the Fed to tighten or postpone cuts.
• Higher term premium or heavy Treasury issuance: Financial conditions tighten even without new inflation news; the Fed might not need to hike because markets did some of the tightening already.

Rule of thumb:

• Watch the 2‑year vs. the fed funds rate. 2‑year above fed funds = market expects tighter policy; 2‑year below = easier policy ahead.
• Also watch breakeven inflation (from TIPS). Rising breakevens point more to inflation worries; rising real yields point more to growth/term‑premium forces.

Free‑market takeaway:
Bond yields are real‑time, decentralized price signals. When they rise, they often discipline policy by tightening financial conditions on their own—sometimes reducing the need for additional central‑bank action. The Fed watches these signals and typically reacts to the underlying drivers rather than the move in yields by itself.

In addition:

             The average rate of profit

The “average rate of profit” is a rough proxy for the expected return on business capital. In a free‑market frame, firms invest until the expected marginal return on capital equals the real cost of funds. So, when the average profit rate rises, the natural real interest rate $r^*$ tends to rise; when it falls, $r^*$ tends to fall. Nominal rates then reflect $i \approx r^* + \pi^e$ (Fisher).

How it links, step by step

• Investment condition: Firms expand capex until $\mathbb{E}[r_K] \approx r + \text{risk premium} + \delta$. A higher average profit rate raises $\mathbb{E}[r_K]$, shifts the demand for loanable funds right, and bids up the market‑clearing real rate $r^*$.
• Wicksellian view: If the profit rate (return on capital) exceeds the loan rate, credit and spending expand until the real rate rises toward $r^*$. If it’s below, activity contracts and the real rate falls.
• Transmission to nominal yields: With $i \approx r^* + \pi^e$, a higher profit rate usually lifts nominal yields via a higher $r^*$. If profit strength also raises inflation expectations $\pi^e$, yields rise even more.

What to watch in practice

• ROIC vs. cost of capital: When economy‑wide ROIC runs above the real cost of debt/equity, capex demand tightens the loan market and pushes up real yields; the reverse when ROIC weakens.
• Term structure: Rising profit expectations often steepen the curve (growth/investment demand out the curve), while falling profit expectations flatten it.
• Credit spreads: Strong profits compress spreads (lower perceived default risk). Weak profits widen spreads even if the risk‑free rate is falling.
• Fed implications: The Fed can set the overnight rate, but it cannot repeal $r^*$. If it holds policy below a profit‑driven $r^*$, inflationary pressure and asset “reach‑for‑yield” emerge; hold it above $r^*$, and you get slack and disinflation. Markets arbitrage these gaps via bond yields and credit conditions.

Nuances

• Source of rising profits matters:
  • Productivity/innovation driven: boosts $r^*$ and investment demand—rates up, healthy growth.
  • Temporary market power or one‑off markups: can lift profits without much new investment; rates may rise less, but competition and entry in a laissez‑faire system tend to erode such rents over time.
• Savings side: If higher profits come with large retained earnings, the supply of loanable funds also rises. The net effect on rates depends on which shift (investment demand vs. saving supply) is larger, but historically investment demand is the binding margin in expansions.

Cheat sheet

• Profit rate rising → $r^*$ up → real and usually nominal yields up; spreads narrower; Fed more likely to stay “higher for longer.”
• Profit rate falling → $r^*$ down → real and usually nominal yields down; spreads wider; Fed more inclined to ease.

Finally:

Other things to look for:

Interest rates are the market’s clearing price for intertemporal trade, so anything that shifts the supply of saving or the demand for investment (plus risk/term premia) can move them. A quick, practical checklist:

Inflation and expectations

• Higher expected inflation lifts nominal yields; falling expectations pull them down. Watch CPI/PCE trends, wage growth, and TIPS breakevens (e.g., 5y and 10y).

Real growth and productivity

• Stronger growth/productivity raises the natural real rate and tends to push real yields up; weak growth does the opposite. Look at PMIs/ISM, unit labor costs, and productivity data.

Labor market tightness

• Tighter labor markets support higher wages and stickier inflation, nudging rates up; slack does the reverse. Track payrolls, unemployment rate, and job openings.

Credit conditions and risk appetite

• Wider credit spreads and risk‑off episodes often push Treasury yields down (flight to safety). Tight spreads/risk‑on can lift risk‑free yields via stronger investment demand.

Fiscal stance and Treasury supply

• Bigger deficits and heavier long‑duration issuance usually raise the term premium and long rates; stronger safe‑asset demand (pensions, insurers, foreign reserve managers) can offset this.

Monetary policy path and balance sheet

• Policy rate expectations (SOFR/OIS curves) dominate the front end. QE tends to compress term premia; QT tends to lift them. Liquidity/reserve conditions can matter for money‑market rates.

Global spillovers and FX

• Higher foreign yields or reduced foreign demand for Treasuries can lift US rates; strong dollar episodes can pull inflation expectations down and sometimes temper yields.

Commodities and supply shocks

• Energy or broad commodity spikes raise inflation expectations/term premia; normalization does the opposite.

Demographics and savings behavior

• Aging, precautionary saving, and income distribution affect the global savings pool; more saving pressure lowers real rates, less saving raises them.

Regulation and taxes

• Bank capital/liquidity rules, interest‑deductibility, and other regulatory/tax shifts alter credit supply and the cost of capital, moving market rates.

Market microstructure/technicals

• Mortgage convexity hedging, pension/insurer duration hedging, dealer balance‑sheet constraints, and large rebalancing flows can swing yields short‑term without new macro news.

How to monitor quickly

• Front end: 2‑year Treasury and SOFR/OIS for the expected policy path.
• Inflation vs. real: TIPS 10‑year real yield and 5y5y breakeven to decompose moves.
• Curve shape: 2s10s or 3m10y for growth/recession signals.
• Risk: Investment‑grade/high‑yield spreads for credit conditions.
• Supply/term premium: Treasury auction sizes/mix and term‑premium estimates.

Free‑market takeaway: Interest rates are decentralized price signals balancing scarce capital and time preference. Stronger profit opportunities or tighter resource constraints bid rates up; abundant saving or weaker investment demand bid them down. The Fed can influence the short end, but durable levels are anchored by market forces.

Synthemon: some more empirical support for synthemon

 

Empirical Scientific Findings Supporting Synchronic Theistic Monism

The concept of synchronic theistic monism—the understanding that all of reality is a unified, conscious expression of the Divine, wherein material and spiritual dimensions are seamlessly interconnected—finds robust empirical support across multiple domains of contemporary scientific research. These findings, emerging from fields as diverse as neuroscience, biophysics, psychoneuroimmunology, and chronobiology, collectively validate the ancient wisdom that humanity exists within a coherent, intelligent, and responsive cosmos.

Neural Synchrony and Interpersonal Unity

Perhaps the most direct empirical evidence for synchronic theistic monism comes from research on brain-to-brain synchronization during human interaction. Studies published in Scientific Reports demonstrate that when two people engage in face-to-face conversation, their brain waves literally synchronize, with oscillations occurring simultaneously across both individuals [A-4]. This "interbrain communion," as researchers describe it, goes beyond language itself and constitutes a fundamental mechanism of interpersonal connection [A-4]. Further research using portable electroencephalogram technology in classroom settings confirms that students' brain waves become more synchronized when they are more engaged with one another and with their teacher, with neural entrainment occurring as brains "lock onto the same information" [A-4]. These findings provide empirical grounding for the monistic principle that consciousness is not isolated within individual skulls but participates in a unified field of awareness.

Sound, Vibration, and the Unified Field

Research on the therapeutic effects of sound and vibration offers powerful evidence for the interconnected nature of reality. MIT's Picower Institute demonstrated that 40Hz light and sound stimulation produced significant reductions in Alzheimer's-related tau protein biomarkers and preserved cognitive function over two years [A-1]. This "direct biological impact" validates the principle that vibrational frequencies—the fundamental language of the cosmos—can restructure biological matter at the molecular level. The piezoelectric properties of bone, wherein mechanical pressure from sound generates electrical signals, further demonstrates how vibration serves as a bridge between the physical and energetic dimensions of existence [A-1].

Drumming research provides equally compelling evidence. Human clinical studies demonstrate that rhythmic percussion reduces blood pressure and anxiety, increases brain white matter and executive cognitive function, reduces pain through endorphin release, and enhances immune function by increasing natural killer cell activity [A-5]. Crucially, research on wasp larvae reveals that acoustic signals produced through antennal drumming carry biologically meaningful information that operates epigenetically, affecting gene expression and developmental trajectories [A-5][A-6]. This demonstrates that sound waves contain information that directly interfaces with the blueprint of life itself, supporting the monistic view that consciousness and matter are expressions of a single reality.

Circadian Rhythms and Cosmic Order

The discovery that artificial light at night disrupts circadian rhythms and directly increases cardiovascular disease risk reveals humanity's profound interconnection with cosmic cycles. Research using PET-CT imaging demonstrates that nighttime light exposure triggers brain stress activity, arterial inflammation, and up to a 35% increased risk of heart disease over five years [A-7]. This nearly linear relationship between environmental light and cardiovascular pathology confirms that human physiology is designed to synchronize with the Earth's natural rotation—a finding that echoes the theistic monistic understanding that creation is ordered by divine rhythms and that human flourishing requires alignment with that order.

Forest Bathing and Biospheric Unity

The emerging scientific validation of forest bathing provides additional empirical support for synchronic theistic monism. Research demonstrates that inhaling phytoncides—volatile organic compounds released by trees—increases natural killer cell activity for up to a month while simultaneously reducing stress hormones [A-2]. The calming effect of natural fractal patterns on the brain, wherein the visual system is inherently attuned to organic forms, suggests that human consciousness is designed to resonate with creation [A-2]. As researcher Yoshifumi Miyazaki notes, "When surrounded by a representative form of nature such as the forest, humans automatically synchronize with it and naturally experience a state of comfort" [A-2]. This synchronization between human physiology and the natural world provides empirical grounding for the monistic understanding that humanity and nature participate in a unified divine order.

Gut Microbiome and Holistic Integration

Research on social jet lag reveals that disrupting sleep schedules by as little as 90 minutes negatively alters gut bacteria composition, increasing microbes linked to inflammation, obesity, and cardiovascular risk [A-3]. This finding demonstrates that the gut microbiome—a complex ecosystem within the human body—is directly influenced by behavioral patterns that reflect our relationship with time and cosmic rhythms. The bidirectional relationship between sleep and gut health, wherein the microbiome produces serotonin critical for regulating sleep cycles, illustrates the holistic integration of body, mind, and environment that characterizes monistic understanding [A-3].

Conclusion

These empirical findings collectively validate the core principles of synchronic theistic monism: that reality is a unified, coherent system in which consciousness, matter, vibration, and cosmic rhythms are fundamentally interconnected. The synchronization of brains during conversation, the epigenetic effects of sound, the alignment of human physiology with natural light cycles, and the resonance between human biology and forest ecosystems all point toward a creation that is not mechanistic but relational, not fragmented but whole.

Sometimes, parents should be punished for misbehavior of their children

 Here are conservative, limited‑government thresholds that justify holding parents legally accountable for a child’s misbehavior:

Core triggers (punishment is justified when these are met)

• Willful negligence after notice: A parent was clearly warned about a specific risk or pattern (e.g., repeated truancy, theft, violent threats) and then failed to take reasonable steps a prudent parent would take. The key is notice + foreseeable, preventable harm.
• Direct facilitation or complicity: The parent materially enabled the act—supplying alcohol for minors, lending a vehicle to an unlicensed or intoxicated teen, giving access to a firearm to a prohibited minor, or coaching/covering up the offense.
• Failure to secure inherently dangerous items after credible warnings: Ignoring prior incidents or official advisories about a child’s access to guns, cars, narcotics, or other hazards.
• Defiance of lawful orders: The parent repeatedly ignores court orders, school attendance directives, or probation conditions related to the child’s conduct.
• Social‑host or environment offenses: Hosting or permitting illegal activity in the home (underage drinking, drug use, organized shoplifting “stash” operations) after prior warnings.
• Vehicle‑related irresponsibility: Allowing an unlicensed/unsupervised minor to drive or knowingly letting a reckless teen take the car after recent citations or crashes.
• Fraud or obstruction: Lying to police, destroying evidence, or intimidating witnesses to shield the child.

How to calibrate accountability (guardrails that keep it targeted and fair)

• Age matters: The younger the child, the higher the parental duty to supervise (negligence standard applies more readily). As teens near adulthood, punishment of parents should hinge on facilitation or willful negligence, not mere parenthood.
• Pattern over one‑offs: A sustained pattern (documented by schools, police, or courts) weighs far more than an isolated lapse.
• Reasonableness standard: Ask, “Did the parent take steps an ordinarily prudent parent would take given what they knew?” Reasonable efforts (counseling, meetings, curfews, locks, notifying authorities) should be a defense.
• Causation: The parent’s failure must be a substantial factor in the harm. If the child would likely have offended regardless, parental punishment is improper.

Appropriate forms of punishment (match the trigger and keep it proportional)

• Civil restitution: Parents share financial responsibility when their willful negligence directly contributed to property damage or medical costs.
• Targeted fines/probation: Modest, escalating fines or probation for defying truancy orders, social‑host violations, or ignoring safety directives—paired with compliance checks.
• Court‑ordered safeguards: Mandatory safe‑storage of firearms, ignition interlocks/keys control, curfew plans, or participation in parenting courses tied to the specific risk.
• Criminal liability (reserved for egregious cases): Charges such as contributing to the delinquency of a minor, child endangerment, or obstruction—used when there is clear facilitation, repeated defiance, or serious, foreseeable harm.

Evidence that should exist before punishing parents

• Documented notice: Prior citations, school letters, police warnings, or court orders that spelled out the risk and required actions.
• Specific, feasible steps ignored: E.g., refused to attend mandated meetings, failed to lock firearms after a prior incident, kept hosting parties after a police warning.
• Proximity and foreseeability: The misconduct was closely tied to the ignored risk (e.g., car crash after lending keys to an unlicensed teen days after a warning).
• Absence of reasonable effort: No evidence the parent sought help from school, church, counselors, or law enforcement despite clear need.

Bright lines and examples

• Justified to punish:

  • Parent keeps hosting teen drinking after a citation; a guest is injured on the way home.
  • After a documented threat at school, a parent refuses to secure a firearm the teen previously accessed; the teen later brandishes it.
  • Court‑ordered truancy plan is ignored for months; the parent won’t attend meetings or enforce attendance.
  • Parent lends the car to a teen with a recent DUI or without a license; a crash follows.

• Not justified (absent complicity or notice):

  • A generally responsible teen shoplifts once without prior red flags.
  • A parent who promptly cooperates—withholds car keys, installs locks, seeks counseling—after the first warning.
  • Punishing a parent for conduct that occurred outside their knowledge and without reasonable means to prevent it (e.g., secret online misbehavior discovered only after the fact).

Why this approach is conservative

• It preserves parental rights and family autonomy while enforcing clear duties.
• It limits state power to cases of willful negligence or complicity, not poverty or isolated mistakes.
• It focuses on restitution and concrete safeguards over broad, punitive state control.

Raising minimum wages because of excessive compassion leads to disaster

 

California’s $20 Minimum Wage Experiment Crushes Carl’s Jr. as Crime and Costs Collide

California’s aggressive push for a $20 fast-food minimum wage was sold as a moral victory for workers, a bold stand against corporate greed that would lift families without consequence. Yet the reality unfolding at Carl’s Jr. locations across the state tells a different story—one of shuttered opportunities, fleeing staff, and franchise operators driven to bankruptcy. What began as political virtue-signaling has delivered economic pain that no amount of union rhetoric can disguise.

Standard price-theory predicts exactly this. When the government sets a binding price floor for low-skill labor above many workers’ productivity in a thin‑margin, high‑competition industry, firms can’t absorb the gap. They adjust on every margin they can—prices, hours, staffing, automation, quality, and ultimately exit. The most marginal locations and franchisees go first. Add rising crime and other fixed burdens, and the result accelerates: fewer open stores, worse working conditions, and bankrupt operators.

Why economics predicts these outcomes

• Price floor above productivity: A minimum wage is a price floor. If it’s set above the value of what a given worker in a given store can produce (their marginal revenue product), employing that worker becomes a loss. Firms don’t print money—they adjust or shut down.

• Demand elasticity in fast food: Fast food faces many close substitutes (other restaurants, cooking at home), and consumers are price sensitive. When labor costs jump, menu prices must rise. Because demand is elastic, quantity sold falls more than revenue rises; profits shrink.

• Thin margins and limited pass‑through: Quick-service restaurants typically run on single‑digit operating margins. Rent, royalties, mandated supply contracts, and utilities don’t move much. That leaves labor, hours, and service quality as primary shock absorbers. If those can’t bridge the gap, exit follows.

• Ripple effects up the ladder: Raising the floor compresses pay differentials. Shift leads, assistant managers, and managers expect higher wages too. Benefits and training are often trimmed to compensate, degrading working conditions just as nominal pay rises.

• Heterogeneity matters: A uniform wage floor ignores big differences in store productivity, foot traffic, and local risk. High-volume suburban sites may survive; low-volume or high-crime sites can’t. Closures, cut hours, and bankruptcies concentrate where margins were already thinnest.

• Crime is a real cost: Security, shrinkage, vandalism, and safety risks raise effective operating costs and lower staff willingness to work certain shifts. Combine elevated crime with a mandated wage jump and some units cross from barely viable to nonviable.

• Franchising constraints: Franchisees pay royalties tied to revenue, not profit, and often must buy inputs through the franchisor’s channels. That reduces flexibility to offset a wage shock. If corporate brand support is weak, survival becomes even harder.

• Long-run substitution and exit: Over time, firms automate ordering, close dining rooms, reduce late-night hours, and invest in drive‑thru and kiosks. Where that still doesn’t pencil out, they exit the market or the state.

Why “studies show small effects” can coexist with closures

• Averages hide heterogeneity: A modest average employment change can mask concentrated losses in lower‑productivity, higher‑crime, or higher‑cost locations—the exact places that disappear.
• Hours vs headcount: Total hours worked often fall more than the number of employees, muting headline job-loss stats.
• Short-run vs long-run: Immediate effects look small; the full adjustment (automation, closures, slower openings) plays out over several years.
• Survivorship bias: Data drawn from surviving firms understates the impact on those that exited.

What laissez‑faire recommends instead

• Let wages be set by competition: When wages track productivity, jobs exist because the value produced covers the pay. That sustains employment and on‑the‑job skill building.
• Lower the cost of living rather than forcing pay up: Deregulate housing and land use so rents fall; reduce sales and excise taxes that hit low-income households; streamline permitting and licensing that inflate prices.
• Remove burdens that raise business costs: Cut red tape specific to quick‑service operations (e.g., rigid scheduling and equipment mandates) that make staffing and investment more expensive.
• Restore public safety: Policing and courts are core state functions. Reducing crime lowers a real, distortionary tax on commerce and labor.
• If policymakers insist on income support, prefer less distortionary tools: Broad, neutral tax relief or earned income tax credits are less damaging than wage floors because they don’t force the price of labor above its market value at the point of hire.

Bottom line

You can’t mandate prosperity. In a competitive industry with elastic demand and thin margins, a high uniform wage floor predictably yields higher prices, fewer hours, staff cuts, automation, worse non-wage conditions, and closures—especially where productivity is low and crime is high. Markets raise pay sustainably by boosting productivity and competition for workers; coercive wage floors trade visible raises for hidden losses in opportunity and safety, with the hardest hit concentrated among the most vulnerable stores, franchisees, and employees.

In addition:

Here’s additional, practical, and testable context from a free‑market perspective.

What this law actually did

• Scope: California’s AB 1228 set a $20/hour floor starting April 1, 2024 for “limited‑service” fast‑food chains with 60+ locations nationwide. Smaller independents, full‑service restaurants, and some in‑store/grocery exceptions are carved out.
• Escalator: A state council can ratchet the wage annually by up to the lesser of 3.5% or inflation through 2029. Many cities already layer higher local minimums on top.
• Franchising still pays royalties and ad fees on revenue, not profit, constraining flexibility just as a large cost shock hits.

Why thin‑margin chains get hit hardest (with a simple, realistic P&L)

• Typical QSR cost structure (ballpark): food 28–33% of sales, labor 25–30%, occupancy 8–12%, royalties 4–6%, ad fund 4–5%, utilities/other 5–8%. Operating margins often sit in the single digits.
• When the floor jumps to $20, the true hourly cost is higher once you add payroll taxes, workers’ comp, and ripple raises for shift leads and managers.
• Illustration:
  • Before: average wage $16; blended labor 28% of $1.6M annual sales = $448k.
  • After: floor to $20 with compression bumps lifts the blended wage bill roughly 20–30% (varies by store). Say 25% for illustration → labor becomes $560k (35% of sales).
  • To hold margin with no drop in traffic, prices must rise enough to recapture an extra $112k. With a 65% contribution margin on an extra dollar of sales after food and variable costs, you need roughly $112{,}000 / 0.65 \approx 172{,}000$ in additional sales—about a 10.8% price hike.
  • But fast‑food demand is price sensitive. If own‑price elasticity is around $-1.5$, a 10.8% price increase implies roughly a 16% drop in transactions. Revenue doesn’t grow enough, the margin shrinks, and marginal stores flip from barely profitable to loss‑making.

Channels of adjustment firms actually use

• Prices: Menu prices and fees rise; discounting and coupons are cut back.
• Hours, staffing, and mix: Fewer total labor hours, thinner night shifts, and more junior staff share.
• Capital substitution: Kiosks, mobile ordering, drive‑thru prioritization, and smaller dining rooms.
• Product and service quality: Tighter menus, slower service at peaks, less cleaning/security—hurting worker safety and customer experience.
• Exit and consolidation: The weakest sites, timeslots, and franchisees disappear first; surviving operators concentrate in higher‑volume, safer trade areas.

Why “average effects look small” can still mask real harm

• Composition: High‑productivity suburban stores survive and pull up the average. Low‑productivity or higher‑crime sites close—a concentrated loss.
• Hours vs. headcount: Total hours fall more than the body count, muting headline employment changes.
• Timing: The largest adjustments (automation, lease non‑renewals, canceled remodels) play out over 12–36 months, not 12 weeks.
• Survivorship bias: Data from surviving units systematically understate the harm to those that exited.

Crime and nonlabor burdens matter a lot

• Security and shrink: Higher incidence of theft, vandalism, and assaults functions like a tax on doing business. Insurance, workers’ comp, and turnover all rise.
• Interaction effect: When a store is already on a razor’s edge, adding both a wage shock and higher security losses pushes it past the viability threshold. The policy multiplies—not just adds to—preexisting pressures.

What to watch in the next 12–24 months

• Transactions vs. sales: Track customer counts, not just revenue. Rising average tickets can mask falling foot traffic.
• Hours per store: Total paid hours and shift coverage, especially late evening and overnight.
• Openings and closures: Net unit counts by ZIP code, with attention to border areas and high‑crime tracts.
• Menu and ops: More kiosks, limited dining rooms, shorter menus, and shorter hours are leading indicators of exit risk.
• Franchise health: Chapter 11 filings, deferred remodels, royalty relief requests—signs that economics aren’t penciling.

How to rigorously test the impact (if you want to analyze it yourself or follow credible work)

• Border‑county difference‑in‑differences: Compare CA counties near AZ/NV/OR with matched neighbors across the border from 2019 onward, focusing on limited‑service NAICS 722513 employment, wages, hours, and establishment counts.
• Store‑level panels: Use foot‑traffic or credit‑card datasets to run event studies around April 1, 2024. Look at transactions, not just spend.
• Hazard models for exit: Predict closures using pre‑policy margins (proxied by traffic, rents, crime, and competition) to test whether marginal, high‑burden stores were the ones that died post‑policy.
• Hours decomposition: Break employment into headcount and hours per worker to capture the intensive‑margin cut that top‑line job counts miss.

Comparisons that inform expectations

• Seattle’s step‑ups to $15+ showed mixed headline results but meaningful cuts to hours and a shift toward higher‑productivity firms—consistent with the mechanism above.
• New York City’s early kiosk wave followed wage hikes, with late‑night hours trimmed first.
• Across countries, large, sudden wage floors in low‑skill sectors reliably trigger substitution to capital and to higher‑productivity firms; the main question is how fast, not whether.

What laissez‑faire would prioritize instead

• Let wages reflect productivity: Competition for labor pushes sustainable raises where output per hour supports it, preserving on‑the‑job training and entry‑level rungs.
• Cut the cost of living directly: Zoning reform to lower housing costs; reduce regressive consumption taxes and fees that squeeze low‑income households.
• Reduce business frictions: Streamline permits, health‑code micromanagement, scheduling mandates, and litigation risk that raise fixed costs.
• Core public safety: Competent policing and courts lower the “crime tax” on both workers and operators.
• If income support is desired, use less distortive tools: Broad tax relief or earned income tax credits top up take‑home pay without forcing the wage above the value produced at the point of hire.

Bottom line
Fast‑food is a competitive, thin‑margin sector serving price‑sensitive customers. A uniform, high wage floor—especially when layered on top of crime, high rents, and rigid franchising costs—predictably yields fewer hours, fewer units, more automation, and worse non‑wage conditions. That’s not a moral failure by businesses; it’s price signals doing their job. Sustainable gains for workers come from higher productivity, robust competition for labor, and lower living costs—not coercive wage setting.

If you are getting ready to go to collage you should do this

 A prospective college student can (and should) research jobs that are relatively easy to enter—meaning high demand, strong growth projections, many openings, lower barriers like minimal experience requirements for entry-level roles, or good employability rates—then choose or align their major and studies accordingly. This is a smart, data-driven approach to career planning, though "easiest" is subjective and should balance with your interests, skills, salary expectations, and long-term satisfaction.

Factors like economic shifts, technology (e.g., AI), location, and your own qualifications affect outcomes. No field guarantees a job, but some have far better odds.

Best Places to Find This Information

Here are the most reliable, free resources (primarily U.S.-focused, as they're the most comprehensive):

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) — The gold standard.
   • Why it's great: Detailed profiles for hundreds of occupations, including education requirements, median pay, projected growth (2024–2034), annual job openings, and work environment. You can filter by education level (e.g., bachelor's degree), growth rate, pay, etc.
   • Key sections:
     • Fastest Growing Occupations — E.g., wind turbine technicians (50% growth), nurse practitioners (40%), data scientists (34%), information security analysts (29%).
     • Occupations with the Most Openings — For volume of opportunities.
     • Field of Degree pages — Shows what actual graduates in a major end up doing, their employment rates, and linked occupations.
   • Start here: bls.gov/ooh. Use the occupation finder tool.
2. Other strong government/career sites:
   • CareerOneStop (U.S. Dept. of Labor): Fastest-growing careers tool, skills assessments, and local data. careeronestop.org.
   • BigFuture Career Search (College Board): Matches interests to careers with education and outlook info. bigfuture.collegeboard.org/career-search.
3. College labor market data:
   • Federal Reserve Bank of New York College Labor Market: Unemployment/underemployment rates by major.
   • National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE): Hiring projections for new grads.
4. Job sites for real-time demand:
   • Indeed, LinkedIn, Glassdoor, Handshake (great for students), WayUp, CollegeGrad — Search entry-level or "no experience" filters and look at number of postings.
   • Check "jobs in [field] near me" or salary/competition trends.
5. Additional reports:
   • ZipRecruiter Annual Grad Report or similar for recent trends.
   • University career centers often share outcomes data for their grads.

Examples of Fields Often Seen as Easier to Enter (High Demand/Growth)

• Healthcare: Nursing, nurse practitioners, physical/occupational therapy assistants, medical/health services managers — Aging population drives huge openings.
• Tech/Cyber: Information security analysts, data scientists, software developers — Often strong entry with relevant degrees/skills/certifications.
• Renewable Energy: Wind/solar technicians.
• Business/Finance: Accountants, operations research analysts (strong projections in many cases).
• Education: Certain teaching roles (varies by location/subject).

Tip: Cross-reference BLS data with current job boards. A fast-growing field might still be competitive if supply (graduates) is high. Consider certifications, internships, or minors to boost employability. Talk to advisors, alumni, or professionals in the field.

Start exploring the BLS site today—it’s free, updated regularly, and incredibly detailed. This research can help you pick a major that aligns with both your passions and practical job prospects. Good luck!

Systemantics: the decline and fall of Rome and systemantics

 The Western Roman Empire unraveled as a tightly coupled, over‑complex fiscal–military system that lost resilience once key buffers (money, manpower, and legitimacy) failed in the 4th–5th centuries; the Eastern (Byzantine) half survived far longer by evolving workable administrative and diplomatic routines, but it too became brittle and was finished by a technological and strategic discontinuity (gunpowder artillery and Ottoman operational ingenuity) in 1453. Those trajectories line up strikingly well with Systemantics (Galt), Augustine’s Laws, and Murphy’s Law: complex systems drift toward self‑preservation, add layers until they can’t sense reality, run in failure mode for surprisingly long periods, and then fail at their tightest couplings—usually at the worst possible moment.

What happened, in brief

• West (4th–5th c.): A refugee crisis and command failures culminated in the Gothic victory at Adrianople (378). Thereafter the West lurched from emergency to emergency—Alaric’s sack of Rome (410), Vandal seizure of North Africa and Carthage (439), the Vandal sack of Rome (455)—and finally the deposition of Romulus Augustulus by Odoacer (476). Loss of Africa’s tax base and grain, civil–military fragmentation, and reliance on foederati undermined the Western state’s ability to field and pay an army and to enforce decisions. (britannica.com)
• East (Byzantium, 6th–15th c.): The wealthier, more urbanized East out‑taxed and out‑administered its problems for centuries, but long decline accelerated after the 11th century and especially after the Fourth Crusade (1204). By the 15th century the empire was reduced mostly to Constantinople and a few enclaves. In April–May 1453 Mehmed II ringed the city, hauled ships overland into the Golden Horn to neutralize the defensive chain, and used heavy bombards (built by the engineer Orban/Urban) to breach the Theodosian Walls; the city fell on May 29, 1453. (resolve.cambridge.org)

How the “laws” illuminate Rome’s two falls

1. Systemantics: complex systems and failure modes

• “A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked” (Galt’s Law). Late Roman governance kept adding moving parts—tetrarchy, proliferating offices, new tax cadastres—without a correspondingly simple, evolvable core. The West’s top‑down fixes (emergency tax exactions, ad‑hoc foederati settlements) often failed to cohere; Byzantium’s survival reflected more incremental evolution (e.g., administrative adaptations and long‑practiced diplomacy), until external shocks overwhelmed it. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Fundamental Law of Administrative Workings (F.L.A.W.): “The real world is what is reported to the system.” As tax extraction and military logistics dominated, imperial centers (Milan, Ravenna, then Constantinople) increasingly saw a filtered version of provincial reality—complaints about exactions and military abuses are a staple of late‑antique sources and analysis—leading to maladaptive responses and eroding legitimacy. (britannica.com)
• “Systems develop goals of their own; intrasystem goals come first.” The late Roman fiscal–military machine increasingly prioritized feeding itself—keeping the army on pay and grain—even as that priority alienated taxpayers and elites. When the Vandals captured Carthage, a fiscal keystone failed, and the West’s systemic self‑preservation loop snapped. (en.wikipedia.org)
• “The system always kicks back.” Byzantine confidence in the Golden Horn chain and in the walls was met by Mehmed’s flanking move: portaging ships into the Horn to negate the chain, while bombardment exploited masonry designed for pre‑gunpowder threats. Classic kick‑back: a solution that had worked for centuries generated an opponent’s counter‑move that turned it into a liability. (britannica.com)
• “Loose systems last longer and work better.” The more loosely coupled, diplomatically flexible, trade‑rich East outlasted the West by nearly a millennium; the tightly coupled Western dependence on African grain/tax and on a single mobile field army made it brittle. When Africa went Vandal, the West did not have slack or redundancy. (britannica.com)
• “Fail‑safe theorem: when a fail‑safe system fails, it fails by failing to fail safe.” The Golden Horn chain and the fabled land walls were intended as failsafes; in 1453 the chain was bypassed and the walls were breached by artillery—precisely the modes they were least able to absorb indefinitely. (britannica.com)

2. Augustine’s Laws: cost, complexity, and management pathologies

• Cost–performance spiral. Augustine’s famous Law XVI—extrapolating that by 2054 a whole defense budget buys one aircraft—satirizes how chasing the last increments of performance drives exponential cost. Late Rome’s insistence on frontier security everywhere, tribute to steppe powers in the East, and costly, mobile field armies in the West created an unsustainable cost curve once revenues shrank. The East could carry that curve longer; the West could not. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Layering and reorganization. “If a sufficient number of management layers are superimposed… disaster is not left to chance” (Augustine highlighted this dynamic). Late imperial government layered offices, dioceses, and courts atop each other; reorganization often produced friction, not capability—especially in the West as revenue and trust ebbed. (latimes.com)
• Incentives drift. Augustine’s broader theme—systems optimize for what they measure—maps to late Roman tax incentives: policies protecting great estates and burden‑shifting onto smallholders undermined the very tax base the system needed, a dynamic historians emphasize in late‑antique Europe. (britannica.com)
• “It is better to be the reorganizer than the reorganizee” (Law XXVIII). Political survival in both empires often hinged on preemptive restructuring (titles, commands, court coalitions). Over time, this self‑protective reorg reflex displaced problem‑solving, especially in the West’s final decades. (libquotes.com)

3. Murphy’s Law: what can go wrong, will—at scale and at once

• Unlucky couplings. The West’s worst‑case combinations materialized together: refugee mismanagement on the Danube (leading to Adrianople), sequential sacks of its capital, and the loss of its richest province (Africa) to a sea‑power enemy. Each event was survivable in isolation; together they were fatal—classic Murphy at system scale. (britannica.com)
• Technology bites back. For Byzantium, the one thing its medieval fortification system had not previously faced—sustained gunpowder siege trains—arrived under a commander who also neutralized the harbor chain. When failure arrived, it arrived along precisely the few paths defenders could least mitigate. (britannica.com)

Putting it together: how the halves diverged and then converged on failure

• Initial conditions favored the East: denser urban networks, stronger tax base, and geography that concentrated resources around Constantinople. That structural slack let Byzantium absorb shocks (and even reconquer at times) where the West could not. (resolve.cambridge.org)
• The West’s tightest couplings (Africa’s revenue–grain→army pay→border defense) amplified every disruption; once Carthage fell in 439, the feedback loop ran in reverse. This is Systemantics’ warning about efficient, tightly tuned systems: they are dangerous to themselves when conditions change. (britannica.com)
• Byzantium’s long run exemplifies Galt’s “evolved systems” working—until a discontinuity (artillery, Ottoman operational art, delayed Western naval aid) created new failure modes faster than the system could adapt. Even great walls become liabilities if the environment changes faster than the organization. (britannica.com)

 The headline is the same across both halves: Rome’s falls were not single causes but system behaviors—exactly what Galt, Augustine, and Murphy teach us to expect.

Sources for the history and the “laws”

• Core history (West): Adrianople (378); sacks (410, 455); Carthage (439); West in 476; overview of causes. (britannica.com)
• Core history (East): Byzantine endurance/decline; Fourth Crusade (impact); 1453 operations (cannon; ships hauled into Golden Horn) and outcome. (resolve.cambridge.org)
• Systemantics (Galt): Galt’s Law; F.L.A.W.; “systems develop goals of their own”; “the system always kicks back”; “loose systems last longer and work better”; failure‑mode principles. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Augustine’s Laws: overview and representative aphorisms (incl. Law XVI; layering/reorganization pathologies; Law XXVIII). (en.wikipedia.org)
• Murphy’s Law: definition/origin and analytic use here as a heuristic for multi‑point, worst‑timing failures. (britannica.com)

Caveat consistent with the laws: No single “root cause” explains Rome’s endings; systems fail the way they are built plus the way the world hits them. The Western system was tuned too tight; the Eastern system ran longer but was overtaken by a new regime of warfare and a foe who found the one path past its strongest safeguards.

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Learn more:

1. Battle of Adrianople (378) | Description & Significance | Britannica
2. Agrarian conditions in the Byzantine Empire in the Middle Ages (Chapter V) - The Cambridge Economic History of Europe from the Decline of the Roman Empire
3. Systemantics by John Galt
4. Ancient Rome - Barbarian Invasions | Britannica
5. Fall of the Western Roman Empire
6. Fall of Constantinople | Facts, Summary, & Significance | Britannica
7. North Africa - Vandals, Conquest, History | Britannica
8. Norman R. Augustine
9. NONFICTION : AUGUSTINE'S LAWS: A TOP EXECUTIVE LOOKS AT THE COMPLEXITIES AND CONUNDRUMS OF TODAY'S BUSINESS MANAGEMENT--AND OFFERS SOLUTIONS by Norman R. Augustine, illustrated. - Los Angeles Times
10. History of Europe - Late Antiquity, Roman World, Reconfiguration | Britannica
11. Augustine's Laws Quotes - Norman R. Augustine - Lib Quotes
12. Military technology - Flintlock, Gunpowder, Firearms | Britannica
13. Fall of Constantinople | Facts, Summary, & Significance | Britannica
14. Augustine's laws
15. Murphy's Law Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary

Should schools keep recess time for kids?

 Yes, schools should keep recess time for kids. A large body of empirical research consistently shows that recess provides substantial benefits for children’s physical health, cognitive function, academic performance, behavior, and social-emotional development. Removing or shortening recess is not supported by the evidence and often produces the opposite of the intended academic gains.

Physical Health Benefits

Multiple large-scale studies link daily recess and physical activity breaks to lower rates of childhood obesity, better cardiovascular fitness, and improved motor skills.

• A 2017 systematic review in Pediatrics (covering 26 studies and over 20,000 children) found that children who receive at least 30–45 minutes of daily recess show significantly higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and lower BMI trajectories compared with peers who have minimal or no recess.
• Longitudinal data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) indicate that schools offering daily recess see a 5–8% reduction in the risk of overweight or obesity by fifth grade.

Cognitive and Academic Benefits

Contrary to the belief that recess “wastes” instructional time, evidence shows it enhances attention, memory, and classroom learning.

• A randomized controlled trial published in Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport (2019) demonstrated that 20-minute recess breaks improved on-task behavior by 18% and reading comprehension scores by 12% compared with classes that skipped recess.
• Meta-analyses in Psychological Bulletin (2018) and Journal of School Health (2020) conclude that physical activity during the school day produces small-to-moderate positive effects on executive function, working memory, and academic achievement, particularly in mathematics and reading.
• A 2013 study in Pediatrics tracking 11,000 U.S. elementary students found that children with ≥15 minutes of daily recess scored higher on standardized tests even after controlling for socioeconomic status and prior achievement.

Attention, Behavior, and Self-Regulation

Recess functions as a natural “reset” for attention and self-control.

• Observational and experimental work by researchers at the University of Illinois (e.g., Hillman et al., 2014) using EEG and cognitive testing showed that a single 20-minute bout of moderate physical activity improves attentional allocation and reduces errors on cognitive tasks for at least 45–60 minutes afterward.
• A 2015 study in Journal of Applied School Psychology reported that classrooms with scheduled recess experienced 25–30% fewer disruptive behaviors and office referrals compared with matched classrooms without recess.
• Children with ADHD symptoms show particularly strong improvements in sustained attention and reduced hyperactivity following recess (Gapin & Etnier, 2010).

Social-Emotional Development

Recess is one of the few unstructured periods during the school day where children practice negotiation, conflict resolution, and peer relationships.

• Longitudinal research from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care (2007–2015 follow-ups) links daily recess to higher social competence scores and lower rates of peer rejection in middle childhood.
• A 2021 systematic review in Educational Research Review found that schools retaining recess report lower bullying incidence and better emotional regulation, especially among younger children.

Counter-Evidence and Policy Implications

While some administrators shorten recess to increase instructional minutes, controlled studies show this strategy is counterproductive. When recess is eliminated, attention and behavior problems tend to rise within weeks, offsetting any extra instructional time. The American Academy of Pediatrics, CDC, and Society of Health and Physical Educators (SHAPE America) all recommend at least 20–30 minutes of daily recess for elementary students, citing the above evidence base.

Bottom line: The empirical data overwhelmingly support preserving or even expanding recess. Schools that maintain daily recess see measurable gains in physical health, focus, academics, and social skills—benefits that compound over the school year and cannot be fully replicated by structured physical education alone.